The European Crisis - an outline

This is an article I drafted with additions suggested by comrades at a meeting last Wednesday in Liverpool.

Any comments or questions welcome!


THE EUROPEAN CRISIS


World crisis
This crisis isn’t a US crisis or a European crisis or an Asian crisis or a Latin American crisis. It’s a world crisis.
The Asian crisis of the late 90s brought Indonesia to its knees and then infected Argentina, and brought down Enron in the US. The Milken junk bond scandal of the mid-80s shook the US finance world. But neither crisis saw the bankruptcy of corporations at the very core of US capitalism like Ford and General Motors, or the fall of financial giants like Lehmann. Or the gutting of European nations like Iceland or the Ukraine. Or such a standstill in world trade or manufacturing. This crisis is not localized, or on-and-off, or sectoral. It’s a general world crisis affecting the imperialist metropolises and every country in their thrall. It’s an economic earthquake and tsunami in one, bringing down economic structures and drowning whole countries.


Overproduction crisis
The crisis is a classical overproduction crisis – of both commodities and capital
All credit is based on collateral. The bottom line here is the sale of real commodities. Regardless of the labyrinths, distorting mirrors, and smoke-and-mirrors illusions created by capitalist accounting wizards, and no matter how high the castles-in-the-air appear to tower above our heads, if the cars, TVs, clothes, machines and raw materials don’t get sold all these illusions will dissolve. And if there are more commodities in the shops than money to buy them, the market will choke. There will be a glut, and an overproduction crisis.
The reason too many goods can be produced is that there is too much capital throwing goods into the market. If one company can saturate a market, two companies will flood it. The only way out of this dead end is for one of the companies to disappear, for its capital to be destroyed. This is done by manufacturing being choked back, and weaker companies going to the wall. And if this isn’t enough, war has to step in to do the job.
These crises are recurrent, ruthless and deadly. And invisible to bourgeois economics, except in the after-the-event, “please don’t expropriate us and throw us away” shape of Keynesianism. That is to say, the large-scale concessions to the working class represented by the New Deal or the Welfare State.


Old powers falling
The US and Europe hollowed out
This crisis has seen US and European imperialism on the losing end of the competitive war. This is unprecedented. The bayonets usually skewer dependent countries or weaker imperialist nations. This time household names have been gone bankrupt – Ford, General Motors, Lehmann, the Royal Bank of Scotland. And huge conglomerates have been cannibalizing groups that aren’t quite huge enough – Cadbury’s has been swallowed by Kraft Foods, for instance.


New powers rising
More viable production meets remaining demand
If two companies compete to the death, the surviving company will emerge stronger. As Ford and General Motors fail, Chinese carmakers take their place. Geely steps in to take over Volvo from Ford, and BAIC makes the best offer for Saab as General Motors is forced to sell. However, GM refused to accept the Chinese as buyers for its new line of Saabs, and ended up selling to a Dutch sports car maker in the pocket of a Russian billionaire. British companies like the steel giant Corus, and the prestigious brands of Jaguar, Land Rover went down to the Indian juggernaut Tata Group.
Britain’s manufacturing sector now comprises only 13% of GDP. It’s little wonder that it is more vulnerable to credit collapse than countries with a strong manufacturing or natural resources sector that are able to hold out in markets where less competitive countries are swept away.
Rising countries are moving into the spaces left by declining imperialist powers. China, India and Russia are making themselves felt, and Brazil is picking up momentum in Latin America - even intervening in the Middle East with a recent visit to Iran by the Brazilian president.


The crisis is general and interlinked
Financial, commercial and manufacturing developments in one place immediately affect and are affected by developments in other places
When Ford and General Motors went bust, Volvo and Saab, with their R&D and manufacturing operations in Sweden, had to be auctioned off, and were on the brink of bankruptcy. If they had been liquidated this would have gutted the economy of the whole of western Sweden. Whole towns would have lost their livelihoods as their only major employers were Volvo or Saab, or companies producing parts or components for them. In the event both were saved, by Chinese and Russian capital. But this solved nothing as far as capitalism is concerned, because world capitalism needs capital to be destroyed, not saved.
The same futile scenario is being repeated around the world.


The EU is tearing apart
The interests of imperialist countries in the EU are savaging the interests of the weaker countries
While Sweden has been scrabbling to save its own skin, Swedish banks have been digging their claws into weaker countries. Sweden is, after all, an imperialist country in its own right. So although more and more of its economy has been bought up by foreign capital, its own capital has been sucking the blood of Latvia and the Ukraine. One of the major leeches being the cooperative and trade union owned Swedbank.
French banks are holding a knife to the throats of Portugal and Spain – and most dramatically of Greece. German capital is setting up shop everywhere in Europe. This process is very visible on the streets of Serbia, which has only recently been prised open to foreign capital. The same goes for new EU members from former Warsaw Pact countries like Romania and Bulgaria.
In this process Germany, France and Britain are all out for themselves. All the fine talk about European unity and solidarity evaporates when national interests are at stake.
The interests of the banks are savaging the lives of individuals
Insolvencies are at record levels and negative equity is sky-rocketing. Perhaps the most striking example of this is Latvia, where a whole stratum of starry-eyed conspicuous consumers suddenly couldn’t pay the loans they’d taken out to buy their flats or a Mercedes. The new material wealth they thought was theirs was repossessed, leaving them facing a lifetime of debt with nothing to show for it. Personal catastrophes of this kind will soon hammer Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and other countries on the sharpest end of the crisis.


Debtors and creditors
Payback time
The biggest imperialist countries are in debt on a huge scale to the Market. To cover this debt they need to enforce payment by their own debtors. But if they drive their debtors into bankruptcy they will lose all the unpaid debts. They desperately need to get their money back, but they also desperately need to have debtors able to keep paying, preferably for ever. To reduce debtor countries to complete servitude would be to turn them into colonies. This is a very inefficient form of exploitation. “Free” wage labour is a more efficient from of exploitation than slavery, and “free” nations offer greater profits than colonies – with far fewer overheads.


The Great Depression
The current crisis so far is the 1930s in slow motion
The Big Crash happened very fast. There were no bail-outs. The capitalist world economy stopped dead. Recovery was slow and painful. Our present recovery, if and when it happens, will be even slower and even more painful, but the crash is still happening. Bail-outs, international attempts to coordinate responses, all kinds of artificial resuscitation methods are being deployed to put off disaster for another few months. They might as well try to hold back the tide or use a wooden fence to stop a lava flow.
The big difference is that the working class is not defeated
The great difference between the current crisis and the 1930s is that the working class is not defeated. Capital has been unable to deal a decisive blow to the class, despite sluggers like Thatcher and Reagan. The class is still putting up resistance and making demands, despite pro-capitalist leadership in trade unions and labour parties.
And today the general standard of living is higher than it was in the 30s, and there is still a welfare state, however run-down. Purchasing power in Greece has fallen by a third, but people still survive. And although this cushions the first blows, it also means that the class is stronger and in a better condition to fight when it finally starts fighting.


War
This resistance means that the ultimate capitalist solution to the crisis of overproduction of capital -- war on a world scale -- is so far more of a threat than an immediate danger. This was not the case in the 1930s.


The capitalist response
Privatization of profits and socialization of losses
Normally sluggish governments become nimble and quick as soon as capital needs to be rescued. Red tape is ignored, there are no humiliating interrogations or insulting pittances involved.
The neo-liberal ideology of total market freedom has been unceremoniously dumped. It was fine to justify huge private profiteering when the circumstances allowed huge profits to be made. But as soon as losses appear the market is shoved aside and the capitalists run squealing to their governments. Corporate welfare is lavished on capitalists who have fallen on hard times. The losses are socialized. And this means that the billions handed over to failed capitalists by their governments will be paid for by the working class by way of higher taxes and slashed public services
Huge loans and crippling austerity
To extract payment, governments are imposing austerity programmes of unprecedented severity. The trillion dollar loan the Greek government needs to rescue capital has been granted by Germany, France and the IMF on condition that it drives through the cuts.


The working class response
The class response has so far been passive or unfocused
In the current crisis no working class organizations have demanded permanent public ownership of banks or companies that have gone bankrupt and been rescued with public money. With this kind of leadership it’s no wonder that the class response has been passive or unfocused. Treacherous political and union leaders are fighting desperately to keep the lid on discontent. They are fighting the workers they represent instead of the capitalists causing the crisis.
Governments are not as savage as their masters would like
Despite the treacherous manoeuvring of unions and parties, class anger has made itself felt. In Greece there have been massive and prolonged demonstrations, and violent confrontations. The austerity measures have been met by general strikes. This kind of response terrifies governments and means that although they are savagely attacking the working class, they are nowhere near as savage as their masters in the Market would like.
Great social problems like mass unemployment (for example the 20% unemployment in Spain, and the much higher figures for youth unemployment throughout Europe) are too dangerous for politicians to discuss. In parliamentary debates and during elections the real world is a million miles away. This silence is also caused by fear of the working class.
A powerful working class will undoubtedly fight back
Although there has been no great increase in working class mobilization in recent years, the working class remains undefeated and its potential power is greater than ever. Today’s developments will push the class forward to struggle. When it starts moving it will rise in many countries at once. The speed with which mobilizations spread from country to country in 1968 will be surpassed. There are fewer differences between countries today, there are more links, and communications are faster and easier.
From defence to attack
To do more than just defend itself the working class must consciously target its real enemy. To replace the political dictatorship of the bourgeoisie and set up a workers government the class must learn who its enemy is, and how to defeat it. In each country and in the world as a whole. But taking power nationally and creating a socialist world demands a completely different class leadership than we see around us today.
Building a new and conscious leadership is the only way to give the working class confidence in its own strength and in its ability to change the world. And it’s the only way to ensure that we never have to endure another catastrophic capitalist crisis.